10 years of the International Space Station, now what?

On November 20, 1998, the first component of the International Space Station was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakstan. 10 years latter, I have to ask, What have we gotten out of it? Why is it there? And what have we learned? Don’t get me wrong. I am a big supporter of space exploration. However (unfortunately) the ISS is a project that has promised to do to much, with too little, resulting in an embarrassing short list of accomplishments at a huge cost.

The ISS is a symbol of international cooperation, and that's great. Each contributing nation has bragging rights about they have done. The US has built most of the station, and has the only heavy life capacity to take large components to the ISS. That ability will cease in 2012 with the retirement of the shuttle fleet. The Russians have the done a great job with regular resupply missions. They will have the only means for astronauts to reach the station after 2010. The Europeans have recently demonstrated the capacity to assist with resupply of the station. The Japanese have built a huge lab built to host a variety of experiments on board the station. All that is well and good, but beyond international cooperation, what's the goal of the ISS?

One of the stated goals of the ISS was to give humanity a platform to perform experiments and tests in space. However, astronauts and cosmonauts aboard the ISS spend most of their time with housekeeping procedures just to keep the ISS operational. Beyond understanding the effects of long term weightless on the human body, not much else has been accomplished. Hopefully after the expansion of the ISS crew from 3 to 6, this will change. As far as completing any scientific research, the ISS has been a huge disappointment.

One thing that doesn't get talked about very much is the expected life span of the ISS. It won't be completed until 2010 and currently it's only scheduled to be operational until 2015. Yes, it would have been completed sooner if it weren't for the Challenger disaster (if it wasn't the Challenger, something else could have happened). The ISS can easily be maintained to 2020, but the question is; who's going to pay for it? The US wants to go to the Moon and Mars. Russia has plans to go to the Moon and beyond. The Japanese and Europeans do not have the ability to staff the ISS independently. They could develop the ability to do so, but they also have space goals beyond the ISS. China, not a chance. They haven’t even demonstrated the ability to perform a rendezvous in orbit. No to mention they have contributed zero to the project.

Bottom line, the ISS was a great concept, but wasn’t thought out too well. To many assumptions were made about it’s usefulness and it has had far to little public support. It hasn't turned out to be very successful (scientifically) and cost a lot more money that anyone imagined. The bright point of the ISS it has been a learning experience. That's a good thing. Experience is one thing you can’t gain until you actually do something. No one has ever built anything like the ISS before. It has not accomplished lot of real science, but it has given us a lot of practical experience in building and maintain a long term habit in space. From broken toilets, to stuck joints and leaky pipes. That may sound trivial, but it’s not. These are the things humanity must learn to deal with if humanity ever really wants to venture into the solar system.

The most important thing the ISS has done is show us how expensive and difficult it is to keep people alive in space. It currently costs about $10,000 for every pound you place in low Earth orbit. The ISS clearly illustrates that unless we change that. That leaves two choices. Leave space exploration to unmanned probes. They are much cheaper to maintain. Unfortunately their capabilities are rather limited. Or, develop the technology to reduce that cost of getting into orbit. (But that's the topic of another essay).