The most common argument for the existence of alien civilizations is The Drake equation. The Drake equation crunches the numbers and concludes that there must be millions of not billions of advanced civilizations throughout the universe. If course the equation is based on a series of unverifiable assumptions. How many stars have planets, how many of those have life. How many with life will develop intelligence, how many of those will develop technology capable of exploring space etc.
We do not know how common planetary systems are. The only extra solar planets discovered so far are hot-Jupiters. Hot-Jupiters are colossal planets, several times the mass of Jupiter, orbiting insanely close to their parent star. They can complete an orbit in a manner of days. These planets are way to close to their parent stars to have formed there. If they didn't form there, what caused them to migrate inward? What happened to planets closer into the star when these planets began to move inward? Why didn't this occur in our solar system (or will it)? To be fair. Our ability to detect relativity small Earth-like planets is very limited. However the existence of hot-Jupiters seems to indicate that our basic assumptions about planetary formation may be seriously flawed.
We also don't know exactly how life initially started on Earth. The conditions that we believe life originated in can be recreated in the laboratory. We can zap it, irradiate it, shake it, heat it up, curse at it and a host of other things, but it doesn't become alive. The origins of life remain a mystery. It is therefore impossible to determine how common the conditions for life are.
Having stated that, just because life exists, doesn't mean it will develop intelligence. If an animal can run fast, have sharp teeth and a good sense of smell or hearing, what need would it have to develop intelligence to survive? In addition to that there have been periods of mass extinctions over the history of the Earth. The most recent was the one 64 millions years ago that killed the dinosaurs. If it weren't for that, and other mass extinction events we would not have the fossil fuels we need to power our civilization today. If it weren't for our large Moon, the Earth's poles would wobble over time resulting in limitless climate swings.
It's really through a series of fortunate events that we are even here at all. The Earth is about 4.5 billion years old. Life on Earth is almost that old. In all that time only one species has developed the intelligence, self awareness and the ability to manipulate it's environment and had the tools and resources to explore the universe.
There are a number of other variables that must also be factored into this. The biggest problem with determining how likely alien civilizations arise in the universe is that we are starting with a data set of one. The Earth. Everyone knows you can't plot a chart with only one data point. Bottom line, the Drake Equation is a guess. What we do know is that if advanced civilizations do exist, they haven't gone out of the way to make their existence known to us.
Multi-cellular life did not develop on Earth until about a billion years ago. It's had a rough time since then. Given that. Any life we find in the solar system or elsewhere in space, it likely to be primitive bacteria rather that advance civilizations zipping between that stars. Blurry photos, atories of alien abduction and government conspiracies not with standing. There is no compelling evidence that the universe of teaming with intelligence. Given the shear enormity of the universe, if aliens exist, I doubt we will ever contact them or vise versa.
Saturday, December 20, 2008
Monday, November 24, 2008
10 years of the International Space Station, now what?
On November 20, 1998, the first component of the International Space Station was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome in Kazakstan. 10 years latter, I have to ask, What have we gotten out of it? Why is it there? And what have we learned? Don’t get me wrong. I am a big supporter of space exploration. However (unfortunately) the ISS is a project that has promised to do to much, with too little, resulting in an embarrassing short list of accomplishments at a huge cost.
The ISS is a symbol of international cooperation, and that's great. Each contributing nation has bragging rights about they have done. The US has built most of the station, and has the only heavy life capacity to take large components to the ISS. That ability will cease in 2012 with the retirement of the shuttle fleet. The Russians have the done a great job with regular resupply missions. They will have the only means for astronauts to reach the station after 2010. The Europeans have recently demonstrated the capacity to assist with resupply of the station. The Japanese have built a huge lab built to host a variety of experiments on board the station. All that is well and good, but beyond international cooperation, what's the goal of the ISS?
One of the stated goals of the ISS was to give humanity a platform to perform experiments and tests in space. However, astronauts and cosmonauts aboard the ISS spend most of their time with housekeeping procedures just to keep the ISS operational. Beyond understanding the effects of long term weightless on the human body, not much else has been accomplished. Hopefully after the expansion of the ISS crew from 3 to 6, this will change. As far as completing any scientific research, the ISS has been a huge disappointment.
One thing that doesn't get talked about very much is the expected life span of the ISS. It won't be completed until 2010 and currently it's only scheduled to be operational until 2015. Yes, it would have been completed sooner if it weren't for the Challenger disaster (if it wasn't the Challenger, something else could have happened). The ISS can easily be maintained to 2020, but the question is; who's going to pay for it? The US wants to go to the Moon and Mars. Russia has plans to go to the Moon and beyond. The Japanese and Europeans do not have the ability to staff the ISS independently. They could develop the ability to do so, but they also have space goals beyond the ISS. China, not a chance. They haven’t even demonstrated the ability to perform a rendezvous in orbit. No to mention they have contributed zero to the project.
Bottom line, the ISS was a great concept, but wasn’t thought out too well. To many assumptions were made about it’s usefulness and it has had far to little public support. It hasn't turned out to be very successful (scientifically) and cost a lot more money that anyone imagined. The bright point of the ISS it has been a learning experience. That's a good thing. Experience is one thing you can’t gain until you actually do something. No one has ever built anything like the ISS before. It has not accomplished lot of real science, but it has given us a lot of practical experience in building and maintain a long term habit in space. From broken toilets, to stuck joints and leaky pipes. That may sound trivial, but it’s not. These are the things humanity must learn to deal with if humanity ever really wants to venture into the solar system.
The most important thing the ISS has done is show us how expensive and difficult it is to keep people alive in space. It currently costs about $10,000 for every pound you place in low Earth orbit. The ISS clearly illustrates that unless we change that. That leaves two choices. Leave space exploration to unmanned probes. They are much cheaper to maintain. Unfortunately their capabilities are rather limited. Or, develop the technology to reduce that cost of getting into orbit. (But that's the topic of another essay).
The ISS is a symbol of international cooperation, and that's great. Each contributing nation has bragging rights about they have done. The US has built most of the station, and has the only heavy life capacity to take large components to the ISS. That ability will cease in 2012 with the retirement of the shuttle fleet. The Russians have the done a great job with regular resupply missions. They will have the only means for astronauts to reach the station after 2010. The Europeans have recently demonstrated the capacity to assist with resupply of the station. The Japanese have built a huge lab built to host a variety of experiments on board the station. All that is well and good, but beyond international cooperation, what's the goal of the ISS?
One of the stated goals of the ISS was to give humanity a platform to perform experiments and tests in space. However, astronauts and cosmonauts aboard the ISS spend most of their time with housekeeping procedures just to keep the ISS operational. Beyond understanding the effects of long term weightless on the human body, not much else has been accomplished. Hopefully after the expansion of the ISS crew from 3 to 6, this will change. As far as completing any scientific research, the ISS has been a huge disappointment.
One thing that doesn't get talked about very much is the expected life span of the ISS. It won't be completed until 2010 and currently it's only scheduled to be operational until 2015. Yes, it would have been completed sooner if it weren't for the Challenger disaster (if it wasn't the Challenger, something else could have happened). The ISS can easily be maintained to 2020, but the question is; who's going to pay for it? The US wants to go to the Moon and Mars. Russia has plans to go to the Moon and beyond. The Japanese and Europeans do not have the ability to staff the ISS independently. They could develop the ability to do so, but they also have space goals beyond the ISS. China, not a chance. They haven’t even demonstrated the ability to perform a rendezvous in orbit. No to mention they have contributed zero to the project.
Bottom line, the ISS was a great concept, but wasn’t thought out too well. To many assumptions were made about it’s usefulness and it has had far to little public support. It hasn't turned out to be very successful (scientifically) and cost a lot more money that anyone imagined. The bright point of the ISS it has been a learning experience. That's a good thing. Experience is one thing you can’t gain until you actually do something. No one has ever built anything like the ISS before. It has not accomplished lot of real science, but it has given us a lot of practical experience in building and maintain a long term habit in space. From broken toilets, to stuck joints and leaky pipes. That may sound trivial, but it’s not. These are the things humanity must learn to deal with if humanity ever really wants to venture into the solar system.
The most important thing the ISS has done is show us how expensive and difficult it is to keep people alive in space. It currently costs about $10,000 for every pound you place in low Earth orbit. The ISS clearly illustrates that unless we change that. That leaves two choices. Leave space exploration to unmanned probes. They are much cheaper to maintain. Unfortunately their capabilities are rather limited. Or, develop the technology to reduce that cost of getting into orbit. (But that's the topic of another essay).
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